Mixed news from greater middle east

In the first half of the 20th century, it must have seemed that Europe was the world's trouble spot, its internal rivalries twice dragging the globe into general warfare. Over the past 60 years, however, it appears that the Middle East and surrounding regions have generated the most conflicts. Many of these have occurred along Samuel Huntington's famous civilizational fault lines, where historic religions clash. Yet today the news is mixed. Now that Yassir Arafat is out of the way, new peace overtures are being initiated by Israelis and Palestinians. Israel is moving to dismantle some of the Jewish settlements in the occupied territories and to release 500 Palestinian prisoners. In the meantime Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is vowing to end the violence in these territories.

North of the border in Lebanon, however, there are tensions caused by the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, and many are blaming Syria, which is technically only Lebanon's neighbour, but is actually an occupying power. No one wishes to see a return to the conditions of civil war, which prevailed in Lebanon between 1975 and 1990.

On the other side of the Fertile Crescent, the Iraqi people voted in their first democratic election in half a century, and the results have finally come in. For those used to the red/blue maps of the United States following last November's presidential election, Patrick Ruffini has put together a similar map showing the geographic distribution of support for the principal political parties in Iraq.

Yet although democracy may be a beautiful thing, as Ruffini puts it, it is far from certain that constitutional government will take root in that war-torn country. Furthermore, the new CIA director, Peter Goss, has told the Senate Intelligence Committee that the war in Iraq has given terrorists contacts and experience in the arts of insurgency and increased the likelihood of another attempted attack on the US.

Moving further east, the cautious rapprochement between India and Pakistan continues as plans are afoot for bus service connecting the two capitals of the divided province of Kashmir. Any effort to diminish tensions between the two south Asian nuclear powers is, of course, welcome.

So the news is indeed mixed. There is cause for concern, but there is also reason to take heart.