12 October 2023

Contributing factors in the Israel-Hamas war

Christian Courier has published my analysis of the current conflict between Israel and Hamas in which I isolate three structural factors rendering the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian struggle almost perfectly intractable: Contributing factors in the Israel-Hamas war. Here's an excerpt:

On October 7, almost 50 years to the day after the latter conflict, the Iranian-backed terrorist organization Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel from its stronghold in the Gaza strip, ruthlessly kidnapping and murdering innocent civilians near the border. Not surprisingly, Israel has responded by besieging Gaza, cutting off power, water and food to the enclave and preparing for a more coordinated response.

Many Israelis are asking how their government could have been caught off guard by the attack, given the legendary strength of the Israeli Defence Forces and the seeming omniscience of their country’s intelligence apparatus. Yet Israel is a severely divided country, and it had been paralyzed by months of popular protests against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposed judicial reforms. It seems likely that this protracted domestic turmoil had deflected the government’s attention away from its longstanding foreign and defence problems.

While we're at it, another article of mine from nine years ago has been trending in recent days: Israelis and Palestinians: Who's oppressing whom? An excerpt:

At present Israel appears to be in a strategically untenable position. If it were to annex outright the occupied territories, the huge Arab presence would endanger its status as a Jewish state. The example of Lebanon to its north is hardly encouraging. Once boasting a Christian majority, the demographic shift to a Muslim majority has made Lebanon an increasingly difficult place for Christians to live in peace. Furthermore, given that Hamas controls Gaza and that the 1988 Hamas Covenant vilifies the Jews, there is little incentive for Israel to confer citizenship on those who view Jews as enemies.

If, on the other hand, Israel were to recognize the independence of the occupied territories as a separate Palestinian state, the influence of Hamas on its new neighbour would constitute a grave threat to Israel’s very existence. As it turns out, the dangers to Israel are considerable whether it opts for a one-state or a two-state solution. Outsiders proposing simple resolutions to the conflict are deluding themselves if they think Israel will follow their advice at its own peril.

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