Canadians went to the polls on monday, 28 April in the 45th federal election since Confederation in 1867. The final results were not unexpected, but they nevertheless represented a stunning turnaround from where we thought a few months ago we would be today. Under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the Liberal Party had become hugely unpopular, with pundits predicting an easy victory by Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives in the election expected sometime this year. Throughout most of the life of the 44th Parliament, the Liberals ruled as a minority government, a supply and confidence agreement with Jagmeet Singh's New Democrats keeping them in power.
Late last year, it became clear that the New Democrats had wearied of this arrangement and threatened to pull the plug on the government. For readers unfamiliar with Canadian politics, parties with only a plurality of the seats in the House of Commons rarely form coalition governments with other parties. The closest we have come to this at the federal level was the Union Government of Sir Robert Borden formed during the Great War between the ruling Conservatives and dissident Liberals outside Québec. It is exceedingly rare for a party to receive a majority of votes cast, and in recent years it has become difficult for a single party to obtain a majority of Commons seats as well. In many other democracies, a party lacking majority support would negotiate with other parties to form a multiparty coalition government. But not in Canada.