Democracy at work

The suspense is over: Election in Russia confirms Putin's chosen successor.

Russian election

The world is awaiting with bated breath the results of tomorrow's exciting conclusion to Russia's presidential cliffhanger. The odds makers must be out in full force.

Europe's tinderbox: Kosovo

It is rare that Russian officials show more political sense than their American counterparts, but I agree, for once, with Vladimir Putin, as well as with our own former prime minister Jean Chrétien, as reported here:

On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a sharp warning to the West about recognizing Kosovo's independence. He said the decision would have dire consequences.

"In the end, this is a stick with two ends and that other end will come back to knock them on the head someday," he said in a televised statement. "The Kosovo precedent is a terrifying precedent," he added. "It in essence is breaking open the entire system of international relations that have prevailed not just for decades but for centuries."

In Canada, former prime minister Jean Chrétien said Canada should proceed with caution as it decides whether to recognize Kosovo's independence or not. Chrétien, who described the situation as a political powder keg with far-reaching implications, appeared to back the go-slow approach of the Harper government.

"Canada has to be careful because we have people who want to separate from Canada," he said in Ottawa, where he was receiving the Order of Canada.

But in Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said it was time for Serbs to accept that Kosovo is no longer theirs. She also suggested it was time to drop centuries of grievance and sentimentality in the Balkans.

"We believe that the resolution of Kosovo's status will really, finally, let the Balkans begin to put its terrible history behind it," Rice said Friday. "It's time to move forward."

Needless to say, Rice's statement is naïve in the extreme, amounting to little more than wishful thinking. To expect that Serbs will simply forget their troubled past and give up their own territory because she says so is not a credible policy. In fact, it will only solidify the Serb tendency to focus on past wrongs by adding one more to the litany of grievances. Perhaps it's time for the US to move forward and put aside the notion that it has the authority to act as arbiter over other, much smaller states' territorial integrity.

Vlad the Emperor

The saga of Vladimir Putin continues, with what may be an attempt either to restore St. Petersburg to its former imperial glory or to gain control over the decisions of the Constitutional Court: Putin moves Russia's highest court to home town. After next May our maps and globes could well record that Russia now has two capital cities.

Man of the year


TIME has made its selection this year: Vladimir Putin! Russians are not surprised, but not everyone agrees with the choice: Putin: Odd Choice as Person of the Year. David Stokes goes so far as to analyze Putin's leadership in light of Jesus' counter-emphasis on servanthood: Gore, Putin... and Jesus. Stokes notes that TIME has also picked Hitler, Stalin and Ayatollah Khomeini as men of the year. Whether Putin deserves to be in such august company remains to be seen.

The play continues

The actors and the scriptwriter alike are following their cues precisely: Putin Will Be Medvedev's Premier. Thus far the plot lacks suspense. By now the audience must be dozing.

Putin's next moves

It's all falling into place: Putin Names A Successor: 42-year-old Dmitri Medvedev, who appears to be doing as he was told in this speech:

In order to stay on this path, it is not enough to elect a new president who shares this ideology. It is not less important to maintain the efficiency of the team formed by the incumbent president. That is why I find it extremely important for our country to keep Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin at the most important position in the executive power, at the post of the chairman of the government.

He led the list of the biggest party, United Russia, which won an impressive victory at the elections to the State Duma and only with this composition, will the new legislative and executive power be able to work efficiently.

Expressing preparedness to run for the post of president of Russia, I appeal to him with a request to give a principled consent to head the government of Russia after the election of a new president of our country.

President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin. Soon the only title Putin will not have worn is that of tsar.

Putin's Belarus

Hard on the heels of last sunday's election comes this report: A union between Russia and Belarus in works? Thus far Moscow is denying such rumours as "speculative fantasies." Poland cannot be happy at the thought of Russia expanding to its own eastern boundary, but it seems to have its own weapons to aim at Aleksandr Lukashenka's autocratic fiefdom: Poland to begin news, cultural TV broadcasts to Belarus in attempt to bolster democracy. Perhaps it's time for Warsaw to direct its efforts towards Russia itself.

Putin's Russia

Here are two somewhat contrasting views of Russia under Vladimir Putin after an election many observers are calling the least fair of the post-soviet era. First, Amy Knight writing for The Globe and Mail: Amy Knight on Putin, Russia's democratic future. Here is Prof. Knight:

The election, on the surface, affirms the idea that most people in Russia believe that Mr. Putin is doing a good job. His consistently high ratings in opinion polls (over 70 per cent) add to this impression. But it is important to remember that Russian people are not presented with a full and objective picture, because of the Kremlin's control of the media. Mr. Putin is virtually the only political figure with name recognition in Russia. He gets personal credit for everything, while the continuous stream of sycophantic praise for him on state television is drummed into the minds of the Russian populace. As for Washington trying to undermine Mr. Putin, I am not sure that this is the case. If anything, the Bush Administration has been bending over backwards (too far, in my opinion) to embrace Mr. Putin as a credible leader, with whom the West can do business.

But Mortimer Zuckerman, writing in US News and World Report, has a contrasting view: Has Russia Left the West? Here's Zuckerman:

The Russians' perspective is based on the following: They closed military bases in Vietnam and Cuba; they accepted America's unilateral exit from the antiballistic missile treaty; they cooperated in the war on terrorism; they acquiesced in NATO expansion into the Baltic States, as well as the use of military bases in Uzbekistan, Kirgizstan, and Tajikistan. And what did they get? Certainly not an understanding of Russia's special role in the post-Soviet territories, where some 25 million ethnic Russians live outside Russia. Instead, they had to cope with abrupt acceptance into NATO of the former Soviet republics of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania and our recent support for admission of Ukraine and Georgia. As they see it, "democracy" is being used to expand American interests, to embarrass and isolate Putin and undermine Russia's influence through the counterrevolutions described as the Orange Revolution in Ukraine and the Rose Revolution in Georgia. Ukraine is a specific hot spot since it is a neighboring state that joined the Russian Empire in the 17th century and has a large Russian population. These challenges to Russia in an area so central to its national identity were barely discussed in the West.

Russia also resented NATO when it went to war against Serbia over Russian objections and without the approval of the United Nations Security Council. And when Russia proposed joining NATO, it was rejected. That was not all. Instead of helping Russia's integration into the world economy, the United States turned out to be a major roadblock to Russia's membership in the World Trade Organization. And we have allowed our own laws to be violated in a manner insulting to Russia. The Jackson-Vanik amendment was passed to penalize and constrain trade with countries that restrict emigration. Russia responded positively by removing all restrictions. It was found to be in formal compliance with the immigration provisions of Jackson-Vanik. But it made no difference. The old resolution is still applied because of senatorial pressure, indeed because of a single senator.

Putin wins big

There were no surprises in yesterday's parliamentary elections in Russia, with Putin's United Russia winning 315 out of 450 seats in the State Duma. Nevertheless, the opposition parties are crying foul. Presidential aspirant and former world chess champion Garry Kasparov has gone so far as to call the contest a struggle against tyranny, recounting his own experience in a Moscow jail. How are the Russian people taking this apparent return to Soviet-era tactics? Pre-election opinion polls gave little cause for optimism, according to this National Post article: "Public opinion polls show Mr. Putin enjoys an 84% approval rating and almost 50% of voters say they wouldn't mind if he became president for life." The lesson? Old habits die hard, and political cultures do not change overnight. Indeed it may take centuries.

Putin speaks

This interview with President Vladimir Putin is must reading for anyone with an interest in the politics of the Russian Federation and its relations with its foreign "partners." It will also likely be required reading for my students in POL 265 this autumn. An excerpt:

Of course, I am a pure and absolute democrat. But you know what the problem is? Not the problem, a tragedy, a real tragedy. The tragedy is that I am alone. I am the only such pure democrat. There are no such other democrats in the world. . . . After the death of Mahatma Ghandi, I have nobody to talk to.

Well, that is reassuring. It seems I've been too hasty in labelling poor Volodya "Stalin Lite."

Putin's Russia

Last week one of my colleagues called my attention to this fascinating article: Reading Russia Right, by Dmitri Trenin. Here is the abstract:

After the fall of Communism, Russia reverted to czarism. But more importantly, Russia embraced capitalism. Although not democratic, Russia is largely free. Property rights are more deeply anchored than they were five years ago, and the once-collectivist society is going private. Indeed, private consumption is the main driver of economic growth. Russia’s future now depends heavily on how fast a middle class — a self-identified group with personal stakes in having a law-based government accountable to tax payers — can be created. The West needs to take the long view, stay engaged, and maximize contacts, especially with younger Russians.

In my Russian politics class this semester, we have discussed the constitution of the Russian Federation, including both the written document and the "unwritten" constitution as it actually functions. Here is Trenin's verdict on the latter: "[Vladimir] Putin’s regime is openly czarist. Its defining element is that the presidency is the only functioning institution." This underscores my own thesis that constitutional democracy presupposes supportive political traditions, the development of which takes time.

The (new/old) Russian anthem

The Russian national anthem came up in conversation yesterday in my Russian politics class. Coincidentally this story appeared in the international press: Atheist challenges Russian national anthem. Oddly, the tune to this anthem is that of the old anthem of the Soviet Union, with music composed by Alexander Alexandrov. In 1990, just prior to the demise of the Soviet Union, Boris Yeltsin's government adopted a distinctive anthem for the Russian Federation, called simply Patriotic Song, with no lyrics and composed by Mikhail Glinka, the founder of the national movement in 19th-century Russian music. But when Vladimir Putin became president in 2000, he brought back the music of the former Soviet anthem, albeit with new lyrics. Putin is not, of course, a communist and he is reputed to be a practising Orthodox Christian. Yet in many respects he is resuscitating the autocratic ways of his predecessors, thus seemingly vindicating the tired cliché that the more things change the more they stay the same.

Those interested in the history of the Russian anthems should look up the Russian Anthems museum, a wonderfully informative website boasting many recordings of the relevant music. My personal favourite is the Osipov Orchestra of Folk Instruments' recording of the Patriotic Song — a version I am confident Glinka would have approved.

Putin breaks old Russian tradition

Elsewhere this sort of thing wouldn't be news, but in Russia it is: "Putin enters party political fray." The news is that Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to throw his support behind United Russia ahead of December's parliamentary elections. In the past Russian presidents, including Yeltsin and Putin, have made a grand pretence of being above partisan politics, apparently seeing themselves as the heirs of the tsars. They have thus left the various parties, which tend to merge, divide and mutate between elections, to battle it out among themselves. As a result, the partisan field has remained cluttered with numerous small parties, which find it difficult to co-operate for political purposes within the State Duma.

United Russia and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, despite their frontrunner status, both enjoy only 20 percent popular support each. Perhaps United Russia will gain momentum now that Putin has dropped the pretence of neutrality.